year. One is when the industry will be passed on, and the other is whether prices can ease.
The National Taiwan Institute of Economics and Economics today held a press conference on the economic trend survey report, which was co-hosted by Sun Mingde, director of the Economic Forecast Center, and Liu Peizhen, director of the Industrial and Economic Database of the National Taiwan Institute of Economics. During the meeting, the business climate test points for the manufacturing, service and construction industries in May were announced. Manufacturing business The weather test point was 99.73 points, rising for 6 consecutive months. The business climate test points of the service industry and construction industry were 97.44 points and 110.05 points respectively, also showing a trend of rising for 3 and 2 consecutive months.
As for when the domestic industry will be able to bloom, Sun Mingde said that it is not easy to do so because "flowers look to different people." High-end servers are sold to the United States, but traditional servers are sold to emerging markets, especially China. , due to China's poor economic performance and overcapacity, Taiwan is going to fight for the transmission of production, and it may be unable to revive it. At least it will have to wait until China's inventories are digested to a stage, and the economy will have the opportunity to make further progress before it can get better. .
Sun Mingde added that high-end processes are an innovation, but mature processes require price competition. It is difficult for countries to compete with China's prices. The recent electric vehicle trade war between Europe, the United States and China shows the destructive power of Chinese electric vehicles. Therefore, innovative products are less likely to be threatened by China. Similarly, if there is a price war, the threat from China will still exist, and it will not be easy for industries to flourish.
As for investment not as good as expected, Sun Mingde said that currently only the high-end manufacturing process of information and communication products is good in China, and investment intensity has exploded, but the inventory of other industries is still high. In the past two months, only petrochemicals and steel have improved slightly. It can be said that "Industries have not blossomed, and investment has not fully blossomed." Only when there is an overall improvement can there be an overall increase in associated investment.
Looking at the boom in the second half of this year, Sun Mingde said that the current boom is different from previous years. The manufacturing industry is in an uphill climb. Because it is very laborious, it took two and a half years, and it is only halfway up the mountain. The recent stock prices of AI concept stocks The growth rate is not as strong as before. If the sales performance of AI and PC in the second half of the year is not as expected, the future prospects of AI may be questioned, and Changwang's exports may be affected.
However, about 60% of the people in the country work in the service industry, and about 60% of Taiwan's GDP is based on domestic demand. As long as domestic demand is good and the economy will not collapse, there are two issues to worry about in the second half of the year. One is when will the production be passed on? There is a bright future; secondly, the price pressure is higher than that in the first half of the year, which is reflected in inflation for the public and cost pressure for manufacturers. If prices can be eased a little, it will be a good thing for everyone.
