The war between Russia and Ukraine has further heated up already stubbornly high inflation, threatening to exceed the Federal Reserve's control. According to a survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, U.S. consumers expect an inflation rate of 6.58% in the next year, a record high.
Zero Hedge reported that according to the March Consumer Expectations survey released by the New York Fed on the 11th, respondents’ inflation expectations for the next year jumped to 6.6% from 6.00% in February, a record high. The third-largest monthly gain in history. However, the three-year inflation forecast fell slightly to 3.7% from 3.8%.
Short-term inflation expectations are broadly distributed across age groups, education levels and income groups, the report said. According to the survey, respondents expect rent and medical care costs to increase by 10.2% and 9.2% respectively in the coming year (similar to the February survey), gasoline prices will increase by 9.6% (0.8 percentage points more than the previous survey), food Prices would also increase by 9.6% (0.4 percentage points more than in the previous survey).
According to the survey, more respondents reported that their household finances were worse than they were a year ago. Respondents were also more pessimistic about their household finances in the year ahead, with fewer respondents expecting their finances to improve after a year.
Notably, the "alt-Misery Index" compiled by Zero Hedge, which is based on inflation and the non-labor rate, has hit a 40-year high.
The U.S. Department of Labor will announce the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report at 8:30 am Eastern Time on Tuesday (12th). According to economists' forecast, the annual growth rate of CPI in March may rise to 8.4% from 7.9% in February.
CNBC reported that White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said on the 11th that the February CPI report released by the Labor Department did not reflect the soaring oil and natural gas prices caused by the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war. She predicted that "influenced by the soaring prices caused by Putin, CPI inflation in March may be seriously high", and the overall inflation and the core CPI excluding food and energy will be significantly different, reflecting the global food and energy markets are facing disruptions. question.
