The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research released the latest sentiment survey on the 25th. The manufacturing industry’s sentiment on the economy remained unchanged in August compared with July. The service industry ended its previous three consecutive months of rising trends and turned to decline. The construction industry showed its third consecutive month of growth. Upward pattern. Sun Mingde, director of the Prosperity Forecasting Center of the Taiwan Economic Academy, said that Taiwan's current situation is like a baked sweet potato. Although the outer skin is a little cool, the inside is actually hot. However, we must pay attention to "secondary inflation", "double rate thawing" and " These three keywords are "service headwinds".
Sun Mingde said that manufacturers reported that most of the current orders are short-term and urgent orders, and long-term demand is still unclear. If we want to expect a more obvious recovery of the economy, the mainland economy needs to get rid of the gloom as soon as possible, and the end of the Russia-Ukraine war will usher in Europe. That day demand exploded, but the flames of economic recovery are still very weak.
According to manufacturer questionnaires and related information such as industrial production and sales, it was found that many industries turned bad in August and are expected to be bad in the next six months, including the machinery and equipment manufacturing and repair industry, metal tool machine industry, industrial machinery industry, bicycle parts manufacturing industry, etc.; weight The larger chemical industry, steel basic industry and electronic machinery industry have a flat outlook on the business outlook for the next six months.
Sun Mingde said that special attention should be paid to secondary inflation, which is the main reason why manufacturers are currently cautious and fearful of next year's economy. This will also further affect the next double-rate policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Central Bank; in "serving headwinds On the other hand, the pressure on the financial industry is obvious. The atmosphere in the service industry turned from positive to negative in August. This was mainly due to the bleak performance of domestic and foreign stock markets, and the decline in Taiwan stock prices, which affected the performance of financial-related products.
Liu Peizhen, director of the Industrial and Economic Database of the Taiwan Economic Research Institute, said that the business climate test points of the construction industry in August showed an upward trend for the third month, and the Executive Yuan has announced the contents of the 2024 budget, and the scale of the public construction budget continues to rise. Therefore, the construction industry will continue to rise in the next six months. The economy is viewed as improving, but although the real estate market is no longer at its bottom, the outside world has paid less attention to the housing market recently, and consumers' expectations for loosening house prices have not changed. Obviously, it is difficult for the real estate economy to recover quickly.
